UK winter plan for both outcomes: wet and stormy, or a cold snap
Follow your local authorities. In an emergency call 999/911.
The short answer
You cannot know which winter you will get, and nobody can tell you: the Met Office signal for the UK is weak. Do the same small set of things for both a wet, stormy spell and a cold snap. Most are free or cost under £60.
What the forecasters actually say
- Autumn and early winter: El Niño increases the chance of wetter, stormier conditions for north-west Europe, including the UK (Met Office, 21 Aug 2026).
- Later in winter: El Niño is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps (Met Office, 22 Sep 2026). The Met Office also says it is only one of many factors.
What it does not tell us
- It gives no UK probability, no month and no region. Our own confidence in a UK effect is low.
- A strong El Niño does not guarantee a bad winter. Treat this as a reason to do the basics, not as a forecast.
What to do now
If it turns wet and stormy
- Check your long-term flood risk (river, sea, surface water, groundwater, reservoirs). Free, now: GOV.UK.
- Complete a personal flood plan and keep it with your essentials. One per household, free, within 2 weeks: GOV.UK (page dated 2023-11-15).
- Do not rely on council sandbags. Cumberland Council and Lancashire County Council do not supply them; for Westmorland and Furness contact the council or Cumbria Prepared about availability (Cumberland, Westmorland and Furness, Lancashire). If you are at known risk, consider gel flood sacks or property-level protection: £30-£300+ depending on the property, survey first, within a month.
- Ask about non-return valves on drains, self-closing air bricks and raising sockets. Quotes vary; within a month: GOV.UK.
If it turns cold
- Keep blankets and warm layers within reach (one blanket or sleeping bag per person, £15-£60) and heat main rooms to about 18C where possible, within a month (Red Cross, GOV.UK Prepare).
Either way (power cuts and carbon monoxide)
- Battery-powered or wind-up torches, one per adult plus one spare, with spare batteries; avoid candles. £5-£25, within 2 weeks (Red Cross).
- A carbon monoxide alarm in each room with a gas, oil, coal or wood appliance. £10-£30, within 2 weeks (NHS).
- Never use a barbecue or camping stove indoors or in a tent, and never run a generator or other engine indoors or in an enclosed space such as a garage or shed (NHS).
- If you suspect carbon monoxide poisoning, get into fresh air and call NHS 111. Call 999 or go to A&E if you find it hard to breathe or lose consciousness. Do not drive yourself to A&E (NHS, page dated 2025-12-16).
- Write the power-cut number 105 on paper and charge devices when severe weather is forecast. Free, within 2 weeks (GOV.UK Prepare). In Northern Ireland the number is different: see the NI power cut guide.
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